Admira Wacker 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Admira Wacker welcome TSV Hartberg to BSFZ-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.14 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at BSFZ-Arena, Admira Wacker have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 1.43. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 1.14 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Admira Wacker at 1.14 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.14. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Admira Wacker in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 57% and TSV Hartberg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 57% | TSV Hartberg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 1.029 / defence 0.927 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.108 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.323. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Admira Wacker games / 7 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 33%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Admira Wacker 33% | TSV Hartberg 75%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 60% | xG Admira Wacker 1.41 / TSV Hartberg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 1.029 / def 0.927 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.108 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Admira Wacker 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 35% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Admira Wacker's attack at 1.03x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.06
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.76
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.36 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.14 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Admira Wacker's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.33 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Admira Wacker's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Admira Wacker at 33%, TSV Hartberg at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Admira Wacker) and 67% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Admira Wacker have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Admira Wacker's games and 100% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg finished level at 1-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 35% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 33%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 57%, TSV Hartberg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.14 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.