Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 11 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Rashid Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W, Al-Wasl FC 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44% versus Al-Wasl FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53% | Al-Wasl FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.40 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.021 / defence 0.744 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.121 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.379. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 37 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Wasl FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20% | Al-Wasl FC 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.40 / Al-Wasl FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.021 / def 0.744 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.121 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Wasl FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (7 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.12x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.78
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.55
1.15
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.15 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 26W 8D 2L from 36 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 7L across 36 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Wasl FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 14W 2D 1L from 17 games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 7W 5D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.81 scored and 1.19 conceded. Al-Wasl FC's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 61%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 26W 8D 2L in their last 36 games (2.39 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 19W 10D 7L in their last 36 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.59 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35%, Al-Wasl FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 71% (Al-Wasl FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 71% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Wasl FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Wasl FC 3-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.40 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.02 / defence 0.74 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 31%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53%, Al-Wasl FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.