Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-4 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 9W 0D 1L at Rashid Stadium — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 2, Al Wahda FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% and Al Wahda FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 89% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.86 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.326 / defence 0.878 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.997 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.521. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 28 Al Wahda FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wahda FC 3.70. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.86 / Al Wahda FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.326 / def 0.878 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.997 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Wahda FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 - 4 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 50% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Record (6 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W | Draws 3 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.33) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.42
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.19
1.33
Al Wahda FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
4%
23.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.33 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 20W 4D 4L from 28 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 8L across 28 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wahda FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 11W 1D 2L from 14 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 7W 2D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 4D 4L in their last 28 games (2.29 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 14W 6D 8L in their last 28 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.43 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71%, Al Wahda FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 57% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 57% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 57% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al Wahda FC 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Wahda FC 5-4 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.86 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 27%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 89%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.