Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al-Jazira to Rashid Stadium in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UK time.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 60% of Al-Jazira's (from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Al-Jazira's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1 for Al-Jazira and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–2 Al-Jazira — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Jazira trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68% and Al-Jazira 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81% | Al-Jazira 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.89 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.189 / defence 0.753 | Al-Jazira attack 1.195 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.379. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Al-Jazira's projected output down. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 37 games and Al-Jazira's last 38.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 23%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.97 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Jazira 4.32. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Al-Jazira's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Jazira 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.89 / Al-Jazira 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.189 / def 0.753 | Al-Jazira attack 1.195 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.868 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira FAQs
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:05 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 51% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 37 games and Al-Jazira's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.85
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.13
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
3%
28.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.24 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 27W 6D 4L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Jazira's form line: 14W 11D 12L from 37 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Jazira.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.44 PPG from their last 18 home games (14W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 6D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.97 scored and 1.68 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 70%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Home) vs Al-Jazira (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Form FAQs
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 27W 6D 4L in their last 37 games (2.35 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Jazira away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.44 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Al-Jazira 0-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Al-Jazira have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%, Al-Jazira 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 67% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 67% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 83% of Al-Jazira's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.89 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.19 / defence 0.75 against Al-Jazira attack 1.20 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 23%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81%, Al-Jazira 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.