Khorfakkan 0-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khorfakkan face Ajman.

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Fixture Analysis

Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Khorfakkan at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ajman — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ajman have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.40 PPG, Ajman 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Khorfakkan's games and 60% of Ajman's (from Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Khorfakkan have won 1, Ajman 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Khorfakkan 2–2 Ajman — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 74% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Ajman 58%). Note also that Ajman surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Khorfakkan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.025 / defence 1.068 | Ajman attack 0.926 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.379. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 38 games and Ajman's last 38.

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 54% | Draw 24% | Ajman 22%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.84 | Draw 4.24 | Ajman 4.50. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 60% (last 10 away games).

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