Al Urooba 2-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Urooba host Sharjah FC at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 3D 4L from 7 Pro League matches — 0.43 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 2.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.43 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Urooba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Pro League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have recorded 4W 0D 3L from 7 outings — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.71 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 1.28 PPG ahead (1.71 vs 0.43), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 57% versus Sharjah FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 57% | Sharjah FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 1.067 / defence 1.490 | Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.267. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Al Urooba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al Urooba games / 7 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 34% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Sharjah FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Urooba 67% | Sharjah FC 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 34% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Al Urooba 1.51 / Sharjah FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 1.067 / def 1.490 | Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Sharjah FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Al Urooba 2 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 34% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al Urooba and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.43 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Urooba's attack rating (1.07) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.57
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.13
1.62
Sharjah FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.62 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 3L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Urooba have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Urooba are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.67 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al Urooba 0-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 67%, Sharjah FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Urooba) and 33% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 33%; Al Urooba have failed to score in 33% of games; Sharjah FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Urooba's recent matches and 33% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Urooba's recent games and 33% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Urooba and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Urooba and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba and Sharjah FC finished level at 2-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 1.07 / defence 1.49 against Sharjah FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 34% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 38%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 57%, Sharjah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.