Al Urooba 1-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Urooba face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al-Wasl FC travel to Dibba Stadium to take on Al Urooba. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 May 2025, 15:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Urooba have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Dibba Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Wasl FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al Urooba's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Urooba, 2 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2025, ended 0–6 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Urooba trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 52% versus Al-Wasl FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Urooba 70% | Al-Wasl FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.19 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.890 / defence 1.278 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.289 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.409. Al-Wasl FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 2.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Al Urooba games / 49 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Wasl FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 70% | Al-Wasl FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Urooba 1.19 / Al-Wasl FC 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.890 / def 1.278 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.289 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.32
Al-Wasl FC xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:10 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Urooba 1 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 18% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 2W.
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
18%
5.46
19%
5.26
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.51
2.32
Al-Wasl FC xG
5.46
18%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
10%
10.19
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
55.57
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.32 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Al Urooba have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 19L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Urooba have posted 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Urooba are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 2.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.96 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 3W 1D 19L in their last 23 games (0.43 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.64 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Al Urooba or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Wasl FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Al Urooba 1-2 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 73%, Al-Wasl FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Urooba and 73% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 36%; Al-Wasl FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al Urooba's games and 54% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Urooba's matches and 73% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Urooba and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al Urooba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Urooba 1-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.19 xG and Al-Wasl FC 2.32 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.88, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 18% | Draw 19% | Al-Wasl FC 63%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 70%, Al-Wasl FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.