Al-Jazira 2-0 Emirates Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Emirates Club at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Emirates Club — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emirates Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emirates Club's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Jazira at 0.80 PPG versus Emirates Club's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Jazira register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Emirates Club in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Jazira hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Emirates Club, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Jazira and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
Emirates Club in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 81% and Emirates Club 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 71% | Emirates Club 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.23 xG and Emirates Club 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.101 / defence 1.153 | Emirates Club attack 0.830 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.705. Emirates Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Al-Jazira games / 21 Emirates Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 20% | Emirates Club 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Emirates Club 3.57. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 90% | Emirates Club 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 20% | Emirates Club 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Al-Jazira 2.23 / Emirates Club 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.101 / def 1.153 | Emirates Club attack 0.830 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.705 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Emirates Club xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club?
Al-Jazira 2 - 0 Emirates Club.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club part of?
Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 51% chance of winning, Emirates Club a 28% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Jazira and Emirates Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Emirates Club?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 0 | Emirates Club 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Emirates Club in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Emirates Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.10x the league average against Emirates Club's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emirates Club's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
51%
1.95
20%
4.93
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.86
1.63
Emirates Club xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
11%
9.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
3%
32.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Emirates Club expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.63 for Emirates Club, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 7D 8L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emirates Club sit at 0.67 PPG from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Emirates Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Emirates Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Jazira's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Emirates Club have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Emirates Club are on 1.19 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Emirates Club in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Emirates Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Emirates Club in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Emirates Club have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Emirates Club away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.30 PPG; Emirates Club away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Emirates Club runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Al-Jazira won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Emirates Club specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Emirates Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Emirates Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Emirates Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Emirates Club last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Al-Jazira 2-0 Emirates Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Emirates Club?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 90%, Emirates Club at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Jazira and 60% for Emirates Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emirates Club in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Emirates Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Emirates Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Al-Jazira's games and 60% of Emirates Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Emirates Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Jazira's matches and 60% of Emirates Club's.
Do Al-Jazira and Emirates Club tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Emirates Club in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Emirates Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Emirates Club 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.23 xG and Emirates Club 1.63 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Emirates Club landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Emirates Club attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 49/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 20% | Emirates Club 28%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 71%, Emirates Club 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Emirates Club's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Emirates Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.