Al Ain 0-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Ain face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium to take on Al Ain in Pro League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 May 2024 at 16:10 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Ain stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ittihad Kalba have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Al Ain's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Al Ain hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Al Ain 2–2 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Ain and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 65% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Ain 74% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Al Ain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 2.05 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.114 / defence 1.095 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.025 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.718. Data: built from Al Ain's last 46 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 48.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 42% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.40 | Draw 4.69 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.05 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Ain's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Ain 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 16:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 42% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Al Ain 2.05 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.114 / def 1.095 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.025 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.718 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:10 UK time on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Ain's last 46 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
42%
2.40
21%
4.69
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Al Ain xG
Total xG
3.98
1.93
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.97
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.49
5%
21.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.93 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 28W 9D 9L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 13W 12D 21L from 46 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 5D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 6W 7D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Ain are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.41 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 65%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Ain (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Ain
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 28W 9D 9L in their last 46 games (2.02 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Ain's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 1.91 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Ain won Al Ain 3-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Al Ain's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al Ain
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Ain have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Ain at 70%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al Ain and 74% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Ain's games and 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al Ain's matches and 74% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Al Ain's recent matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Al Ain 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Ain 0-1 at Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 2.05 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.93 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Ain fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 42% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 37%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 74%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.