Baniyas SC 3-3 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Baniyas SC welcome Al Bataeh to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baniyas SC at 0.90 PPG versus Al Bataeh's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Bataeh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 2 for Al Bataeh and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 60% and Al Bataeh 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 64% | Al Bataeh 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.57 xG and Al Bataeh 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.027 / defence 1.079 | Al Bataeh attack 0.881 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.744. Data: 47 Baniyas SC games / 47 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 37% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 40%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Al Bataeh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Al Bataeh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 37% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Baniyas SC 1.57 / Al Bataeh 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.027 / def 1.079 | Al Bataeh attack 0.881 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al Bataeh xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:10 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Baniyas SC 3 - 3 Al Bataeh.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 37% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Bataeh 2W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
37%
2.74
23%
4.29
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.66
Al Bataeh xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.66 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 13W 7D 27L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 12W 11D 24L from 47 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.98 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 8W 3D 12L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.28 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 13W 7D 27L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.96 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 61%, Al Bataeh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Baniyas SC and 74% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Baniyas SC's games and 56% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baniyas SC's matches and 74% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh finished level at 3-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.57 xG and Al Bataeh 1.66 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Bataeh outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Al Bataeh attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 37% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 40%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 64%, Al Bataeh 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.98 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.