Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk at Arena Lviv this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Livyi Bereh's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 52% versus Livyi Bereh 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Livyi Bereh 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.02 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.642 / defence 0.952 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.717 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.033. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.642 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 17 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 20% | Livyi Bereh 12%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Livyi Bereh 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | Livyi Bereh 11% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 24 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 20% | Livyi Bereh 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.02 / Livyi Bereh 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.642 / def 0.952 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.717 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Livyi Bereh xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 24 February 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 68% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 1W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.64) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.72x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 46/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.07
12%
8.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.73
0.70
Livyi Bereh xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
8.37
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
2%
63.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.70 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 13W 4D 4L from 21 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 10L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 7W 1D 1L from 9 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.67 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 24%.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 13W 4D 4L in their last 21 games (2.05 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.44 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, Livyi Bereh 11% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 22% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh in 33%; Livyi Bereh in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 11% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 22% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 22% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.02 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.70 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.64 / defence 0.95 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 20% | Livyi Bereh 12%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Livyi Bereh 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.