Ruh Lviv 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ruh Lviv, 0.90 for Livyi Bereh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ruh Lviv 41% | Livyi Bereh 18%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 41% | Livyi Bereh 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.38 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.032 / defence 0.857 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.671 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.015. Data: 42 Ruh Lviv games / 13 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 56% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 15%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Livyi Bereh 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Livyi Bereh 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 56% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 34% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.38 / Livyi Bereh 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.032 / def 0.857 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.671 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Livyi Bereh xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 56% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.03) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.67x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 42/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.46
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.96
0.58
Livyi Bereh xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
4%
26.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.58 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 5W 8D 4L from 17 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 9L across 17 games — 0.82 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.53 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 18%.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 8D 4L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.57 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Ruh Lviv) and 14% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ruh Lviv) and 29% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games; Livyi Bereh in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 14% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 29% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 14% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.38 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.58 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 56% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 15%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 41%, Livyi Bereh 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.