Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Chornomorets to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 0.90 PPG, Chornomorets 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Obolon'-Brovar, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 25% versus Chornomorets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 31% | Chornomorets 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.14 xG and Chornomorets 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.800 / defence 1.118 | Chornomorets attack 1.048 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.305. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Obolon'-Brovar games / 46 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 44%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Chornomorets 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Chornomorets 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.14 / Chornomorets 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.800 / def 1.118 | Chornomorets attack 1.048 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Chornomorets xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 26% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.80) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
26%
3.82
30%
3.36
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.67
1.53
Chornomorets xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.53 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 3W 5D 8L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets's form line: 7W 1D 8L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chornomorets are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Chornomorets in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 7W 1D 8L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Chornomorets away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.86 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Chornomorets 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 71% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 57% of games; Chornomorets in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 71% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 71% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets finished level at 1-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.14 xG and Chornomorets 1.53 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Chornomorets attack 1.05 / defence 1.31, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 44%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 31%, Chornomorets 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chornomorets arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.