LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 3W 2D 4L at Stadion Kolos — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kryvbas KR have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 44% versus Kryvbas KR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Kryvbas KR 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.926 / defence 1.130 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.129 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.203. Data: 16 LNZ Cherkasy games / 47 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Kryvbas KR 2.04. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Kryvbas KR 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 / Kryvbas KR 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.926 / def 1.130 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.129 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Kryvbas KR xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 3 Kryvbas KR.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 21% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.93x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.13x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 16/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
21%
4.74
29%
3.39
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.47
1.53
Kryvbas KR xG
4.74
21%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.99
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.53 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 4L across 18 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.72 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.22 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.89 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 56%, Kryvbas KR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 44% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 33%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Kryvbas KR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 0-3 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.53 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kryvbas KR 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.