LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 4L this season (7 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record: 2W 0D 3L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.10 (Obolon'-Brovar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 27%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Obolon'-Brovar 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.819 / defence 1.191 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.220. Data: 11 LNZ Cherkasy games / 11 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 57% | Obolon'-Brovar 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.819 / def 1.191 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy 3 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 32% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.82) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.12
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.99
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.03 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 0.82 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 27%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Obolon'-Brovar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Obolon'-Brovar's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.80 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.20 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 60%, Obolon'-Brovar 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 20% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 40% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 46%, Obolon'-Brovar 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.