Kryvbas KR 3-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dnipro-1 have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 2.10 for Dnipro-1. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kryvbas KR 1W, Dnipro-1 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 38% versus Dnipro-1 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 42% | Dnipro-1 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.140 / defence 0.983 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.089 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.252. Data: 41 Kryvbas KR games / 40 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | Dnipro-1 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.09 / Dnipro-1 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.140 / def 0.983 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.089 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 Dnipro-1.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 30% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1?
Record (2 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.14) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.09x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.54
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.43
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.34 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 7D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.20 PPG from 40 outings (27W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 11W 2D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.21 points per game from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.85 scored and 0.85 conceded. Dnipro-1's attacking output running into Kryvbas KR's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 27W 7D 6L in their last 40 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.84 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 37%, Dnipro-1 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kryvbas KR) and 58% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 47%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 47% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 58% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dnipro-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Dnipro-1 3-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dnipro-1 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 42%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 42%, Dnipro-1 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.