Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 36%, yet in-form Livyi Bereh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Livyi Bereg plays host to Livyi Bereh versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Arena Livyi Bereg: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Livyi Bereg.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Livyi Bereh's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Livyi Bereh, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Livyi Bereh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Livyi Bereh — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 46% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 18% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.11 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / defence 1.002 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.125 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.116. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Livyi Bereh games / 40 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 29% | Draw 36% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Livyi Bereh 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 29% | Draw 36% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.11 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / def 1.002 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.125 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 29% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (1.12x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 9/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
29%
3.48
36%
2.81
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.37
1.26
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.26 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 3W 6D 2L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Livyi Bereh by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 27%.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.20 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 1 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 40%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Livyi Bereh) and 80% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 40% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 40% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 80% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.