Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Karpaty at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Karpaty welcome Livyi Bereh to Ukraina Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karpaty — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Ukraina Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ukraina Stadium.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karpaty at 1.60 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Karpaty have won 2, Livyi Bereh 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 54% versus Livyi Bereh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karpaty 54% | Livyi Bereh 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.50 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.179 / defence 1.015 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.875 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.116. Data: 40 Karpaty games / 9 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 45% | Draw 33% | Livyi Bereh 21%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Livyi Bereh 4.76. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Karpaty 40% | Livyi Bereh 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 45% | Draw 33% | Livyi Bereh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Karpaty 1.50 / Livyi Bereh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.179 / def 1.015 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.875 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Livyi Bereh xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Ukraina Stadium.
Where is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 45% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Karpaty and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
Record (3 meetings): Karpaty 2W | Draws 1 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh in?
Karpaty (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karpaty's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
45%
2.21
33%
2.99
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.49
0.99
Livyi Bereh xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.99 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karpaty's recent record stands at 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 2L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karpaty on 1.45 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Karpaty have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.82 scored and 0.73 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Karpaty's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 1.60 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Karpaty won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Karpaty
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-1 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 60%, Livyi Bereh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Karpaty) and 20% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Livyi Bereh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Karpaty's games and 60% of Livyi Bereh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Karpaty's recent games and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.