Uthai Thani 4-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Muangthong United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Muangthong United make the trip to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Uthai Thani (all games): 3W 0D 5L across their last 8 — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%).
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 3L across their last 4 home games (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Muangthong United have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.12 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.30 for Muangthong United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 50% versus Muangthong United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 62% | Muangthong United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.12 xG and Muangthong United 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.690 / defence 1.515 | Muangthong United attack 1.068 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.249. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.515 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Muangthong United's projected output up. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 8 games and Muangthong United's last 38.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 20% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 57%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 5.06 | Draw 4.34 | Muangthong United 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 4 home games and Muangthong United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 50% (last 4 home games) | Muangthong United 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 20% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Uthai Thani 1.12 / Muangthong United 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.690 / def 1.515 | Muangthong United attack 1.068 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Muangthong United xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United FAQs
What time does Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Uthai Thani 4 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 20% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Muangthong United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.69x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.07x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from Uthai Thani's last 8 games and Muangthong United's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
20%
5.06
23%
4.34
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.15
2.02
Muangthong United xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
13%
7.55
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
38.21
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 2.02 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 3W 0D 5L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.25 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
Uthai Thani (Home) vs Muangthong United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Uthai Thani
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United Form FAQs
What form are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Muangthong United away?
Muangthong United's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 0.75 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won Muangthong United 5-2 Uthai Thani on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
3
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Muangthong United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Uthai Thani have won 2, Muangthong United have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Muangthong United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Muangthong United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 50%, Muangthong United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Uthai Thani and 75% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Uthai Thani and Muangthong United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Uthai Thani's games and 75% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Uthai Thani's matches and 75% of Muangthong United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Muangthong United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 100% of Muangthong United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Muangthong United 4-2 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.12 xG and Muangthong United 2.02 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.69 / defence 1.51 against Muangthong United attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 20% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 57%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 62%, Muangthong United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG, Muangthong United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.