Chiangrai United 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to LEO Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Chiangrai United: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Chonburi FC, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chiangrai United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 69% and Chonburi FC 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 61% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.76 xG and Chonburi FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / defence 0.717 | Chonburi FC attack 1.137 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.270. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Chiangrai United games / 36 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 54% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Chonburi FC 4.55. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 54% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangrai United 1.76 / Chonburi FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / def 0.717 | Chonburi FC attack 1.137 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chonburi FC xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 54% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Chiangrai United 3W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.95x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.01
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.04
Chonburi FC xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.04 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 15L across 36 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.44 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 14W 7D 15L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.94 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 67%, Chonburi FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chiangrai United) and 56% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chiangrai United's games and 61% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chiangrai United's matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United and Chonburi FC finished level at 1-1 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.76 xG and Chonburi FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Chonburi FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 54% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 22%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 61%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.44 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.