Trat FC 2-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trat FC face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to face Trat FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Trat FC have posted 3W 3D 1L from their last 7 home games — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Trat FC against 1.40 for Uthai Thani. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Trat FC — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 50% versus Uthai Thani 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trat FC 67% | Uthai Thani 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.50 xG and Uthai Thani 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.824 / defence 1.118 | Uthai Thani attack 0.978 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.248. Data: built from Trat FC's last 12 games and Uthai Thani's last 12.
Result probabilities: Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.51 | Draw 3.80 | Uthai Thani 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trat FC's last 7 home games and Uthai Thani's last 5 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trat FC 57% (last 7 home games) | Uthai Thani 60% (last 5 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Trat FC 1.50 / Uthai Thani 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.824 / def 1.118 | Uthai Thani attack 0.978 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Uthai Thani xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trat FC vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Trat FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Trat FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Trat FC 2 - 3 Uthai Thani.
Where is Trat FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Trat FC vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 40% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Trat FC and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trat FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trat FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.98x) against Trat FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Trat FC's last 12 games and Uthai Thani's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.80
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.36
Uthai Thani xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trat FC vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.36 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trat FC come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Trat FC against 1.17 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trat FC's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trat FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
Trat FC (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trat FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Trat FC vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Trat FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Trat FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
0
Draws
2
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Trat FC vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Uthai Thani?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Trat FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: Uthai Thani 3-1 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 60%, Uthai Thani 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Trat FC and 80% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trat FC vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trat FC and Uthai Thani matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trat FC's games and 60% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trat FC and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trat FC's matches and 80% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Trat FC and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Trat FC's recent matches and 80% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Trat FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Trat FC 2-3 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.50 xG and Uthai Thani 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Uthai Thani attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 67%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.33 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.