Sukhothai FC 0-0 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sukhothai FC welcome Trat FC to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Trat FC have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 1.20 PPG, Trat FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.65 xG and Trat FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.993 | Trat FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.141. Data: 31 Sukhothai FC games / 1 Trat FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Trat FC 4.55. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.65 / Trat FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.994 / def 0.993 | Trat FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Trat FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Trat FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 53% chance of winning, Trat FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Trat FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Trat FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Trat FC (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.99) and Trat FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trat FC's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.98
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Trat FC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.96 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trat FC's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sukhothai FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trat FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Trat FC's attacking output running into Sukhothai FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Trat FC in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Trat FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Trat FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Trat FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sukhothai FC's games and 100% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 100% of Trat FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Trat FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Sukhothai FC and Trat FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.65 xG and Trat FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Trat FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Trat FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 22%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 100%, Trat FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trat FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.