Port FC 3-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Police Tero meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Police Tero have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Port FC, 1.60 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Police Tero in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Port FC, 1 for Police Tero and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Police Tero — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 74% and Police Tero 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 58% | Police Tero 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.75 xG and Police Tero 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.091 / defence 0.975 | Police Tero attack 1.073 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.227. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Police Tero games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 28%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Police Tero 3.57. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Police Tero 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Port FC 1.75 / Police Tero 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.091 / def 0.975 | Police Tero attack 1.073 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Port FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Police Tero xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Port FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Police Tero?
Port FC 3 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Port FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Police Tero part of?
Port FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 48% chance of winning, Police Tero a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Port FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Police Tero?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 3 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Port FC and Police Tero in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Police Tero (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (1.07x) against Port FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.17
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.28
Police Tero xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Port FC and 1.28 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 14W 11D 6L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero's form line: 11W 11D 9L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Port FC against 1.42 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Police Tero in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 14W 11D 6L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 11W 11D 9L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Police Tero away?
Port FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Port FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port FC
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Police Tero?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Port FC, 67% for Police Tero — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Port FC and 67% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Port FC's games and 67% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Port FC's matches and 67% of Police Tero's.
Do Port FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Police Tero 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.75 xG and Police Tero 1.28 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Police Tero attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 48% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 28%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 58%, Police Tero 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.71 PPG, Police Tero 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.