Sukhothai FC 2-3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Talay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 10 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 46% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 41% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.828 / defence 0.983 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.759 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.145. Data: 22 Sukhothai FC games / 52 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.35. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.30 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.828 / def 0.983 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.759 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 46% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.76x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.20
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.85
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.85 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 8D 8L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 0.95 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.86 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Sukhothai FC) and 30% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sukhothai FC) and 40% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 30% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 40% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Sukhothai FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Sukhothai FC 2-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 41%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.