Sukhothai FC 1-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 4 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 61% versus Lamphun Warrior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 58% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.53 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.983 / defence 0.909 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.927 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.314. Data: 33 Sukhothai FC games / 33 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 27%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 3.70. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.53 / Lamphun Warrior 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.983 / def 0.909 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.927 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lamphun Warrior xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 46% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.68
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.11
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.11 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 10W 10D 13L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.21 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.24 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lamphun Warrior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 62%, Lamphun Warrior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Sukhothai FC) and 44% (Lamphun Warrior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sukhothai FC's games and 56% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 44% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Sukhothai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.53 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 27%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 58%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.21 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.