Sukhothai FC 0-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sukhothai FC face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sukhothai FC welcome Bangkok United to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bangkok United — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bangkok United — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bangkok United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Bangkok United and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Bangkok United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bangkok United in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 54% versus Bangkok United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 50% | Bangkok United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.01 xG and Bangkok United 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.090 | Bangkok United attack 1.050 / defence 0.633. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.295. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.633 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Sukhothai FC games / 46 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Bangkok United 2.17. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Bangkok United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.01 / Bangkok United 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / def 1.090 | Bangkok United attack 1.050 / def 0.633 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bangkok United xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 24% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
Record (3 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
24%
4.16
30%
3.35
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.48
Bangkok United xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.48 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 14D 19L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 30W 9D 7L from 46 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 13W 5D 4L from 22 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.83 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 30W 9D 7L in their last 46 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Bangkok United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bangkok United 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 46%, Bangkok United 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sukhothai FC) and 36% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bangkok United in 50%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 41% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 36% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United finished level at 0-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.01 xG and Bangkok United 1.48 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Bangkok United attack 1.05 / defence 0.63, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 50%, Bangkok United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.