Rayong FC 2-3 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to WHA Rayong Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 February 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC at WHA Rayong Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayong FC 1.40 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 67% versus Lamphun Warrior 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 62% | Lamphun Warrior 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.306 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.900 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.190. Data: 21 Rayong FC games / 51 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Rayong FC 1.37 / Lamphun Warrior 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.987 / def 1.306 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.900 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 17 February 2025 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Rayong FC 2 - 3 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 36% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (0.99) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.71
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.40 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 7D 9L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.05 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayong FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Lamphun Warrior won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 80%, Lamphun Warrior at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Rayong FC's games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Rayong FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Rayong FC 2-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.31 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 62%, Lamphun Warrior 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.05 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.