Port FC 1-0 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Trat FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Trat FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 8W 0D 2L at PAT Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Trat FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Port FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Port FC, 1 for Trat FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Trat FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Trat FC trading profile (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 78% and Trat FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 78% | Trat FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 3.65 xG and Trat FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.505 / defence 1.177 | Trat FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.244. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — their λ of 3.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Port FC games / 18 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 80% | Draw 12% | Trat FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.25 | Draw 8.33 | Trat FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (80%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.65 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 87% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Trat FC 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 80% | Draw 12% | Trat FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 70% | xG Port FC 3.65 / Trat FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.505 / def 1.177 | Trat FC attack 0.858 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Port FC (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.65
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Trat FC xG
70%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Trat FC kick off?
Port FC vs Trat FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Trat FC?
Port FC 1 - 0 Trat FC.
Where is Port FC vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Trat FC part of?
Port FC vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 80% chance of winning, Trat FC a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Port FC and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 0 | Trat FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Trat FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Trat FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.50) and Trat FC's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 3.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trat FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 4-1 (6.9%), 2-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
80%
1.25
12%
8.38
8%
12.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.65
Port FC xG
Total xG
4.90
1.26
Trat FC xG
1.25
80%
Home win
8.38
12%
Draw
12.52
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
3%
38.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.65 expected goals for Port FC and 1.26 for Trat FC, a combined total of 4.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Port FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 11W 3D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC's form line: 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trat FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
On the road, Trat FC have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.33 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Trat FC in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Trat FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Trat FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port FC
0
Draws
1
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 1, Trat FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Port FC 1-0 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 71%, Trat FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Port FC and 86% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Port FC's games and 57% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Port FC's matches and 86% of Trat FC's.
Do Port FC and Trat FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Trat FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Trat FC 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 3.65 xG and Trat FC 1.26 xG, a combined 4.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Trat FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.50 / defence 1.18 against Trat FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.45, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 80% | Draw 12% | Trat FC 8%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 96% and missed. Over 3.5 was 72% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 78%, Trat FC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Trat FC's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Trat FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.