Port FC vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.70 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Port FC 5W, Sukhothai FC 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 5–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Sukhothai FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Sukhothai FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.79 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.152 / defence 0.892 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.865 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Sukhothai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 59% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 59% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Port FC 1.79 / Sukhothai FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.152 / def 0.892 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.865 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 59% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Port FC 5W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.86x) against Port FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.17
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
3%
35.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Port FC and 0.84 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 31 games, going 19W 6D 6L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (6W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 11W 4D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Port FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Port FC
0
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Port FC) and 27% (Sukhothai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Port FC) and 27% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Port FC's recent games and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.