Port FC vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Prachuap.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Prachuap have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Port FC's favour (2.40 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Port FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Port FC winning.
The historical record gives Port FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Prachuap 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Prachuap 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.61 xG and Prachuap 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.152 / defence 0.916 | Prachuap attack 0.887 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Prachuap games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 16%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Prachuap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Port FC 1.61 / Prachuap 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.152 / def 0.916 | Prachuap attack 0.887 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Prachuap xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Prachuap a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Record (10 meetings): Port FC 5W | Draws 3 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.89x) against Port FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.81
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.75
Prachuap xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
30.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Port FC and 0.75 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 8L across 31 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 11W 4D 0L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Port FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Prachuap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Port FC) and 47% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Prachuap in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 53% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Port FC's recent games and 47% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.