Port FC 0-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 10 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Port FC, 1.50 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Port FC 3W, Prachuap 1W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Prachuap 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Prachuap 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.93 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.019 / defence 1.011 | Prachuap attack 1.022 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.259. Data: 56 Port FC games / 57 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 4.00. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Port FC 1.93 / Prachuap 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.019 / def 1.011 | Prachuap attack 1.022 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Port FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Prachuap xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 10 April 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 0 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 52% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Record (7 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 3 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.02x) against Port FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.36
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.30
Prachuap xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
27.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Port FC and 1.30 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 27W 17D 12L from 56 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 21L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 17W 6D 5L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 2W 10D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.36 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 68%, Prachuap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Port FC) and 43% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Port FC's games and 57% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Port FC's matches and 43% of Prachuap's.
Do Port FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Port FC 0-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.93 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 25%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 64%, Prachuap 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.