Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Pattaya United at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 0D 1L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pattaya United — All Games: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Pattaya United have posted 1W 3D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 PPG, Pattaya United 1.25 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% and Pattaya United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Pattaya United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Pattaya United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.889 / defence 1.085 | Pattaya United attack 0.769 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.291. Data: 8 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 8 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 38%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Pattaya United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pattaya United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% | Pattaya United 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 / Pattaya United 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.889 / def 1.085 | Pattaya United attack 0.769 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pattaya United xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Pattaya United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 31% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Pattaya United's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Pattaya United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.28
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.03
1.08
Pattaya United xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.08 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 4L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pattaya United's form line: 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.00 PPG, Pattaya United on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pattaya United have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pattaya United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Pattaya United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Pattaya United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Pattaya United away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Pattaya United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Pattaya United 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, Pattaya United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 33% for Pattaya United.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pattaya United in 33%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Pattaya United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 67% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 33% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Pattaya United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Pattaya United 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Pattaya United 1.08 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pattaya United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Pattaya United attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 38%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, Pattaya United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Pattaya United's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 PPG, Pattaya United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.