Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
Chiangrai United (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 7W 0D 1L from 8 away games — 2.62 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.62 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.50 for Chiangrai United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W, Chiangrai United 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% versus Chiangrai United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 41% | Chiangrai United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.956 / defence 1.048 | Chiangrai United attack 1.100 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.151. Data: 17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 17 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 45%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 2.22. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 / Chiangrai United 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.956 / def 1.048 | Chiangrai United attack 1.100 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Chiangrai United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 27% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.10x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.59
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.33
Chiangrai United xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.33 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (9W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.71 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.62 points per game from 8 outings (7W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.29 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.62 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chiangrai United won 1-4 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Chiangrai United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 50%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Chiangrai United 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.33 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Chiangrai United attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 45%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 41%, Chiangrai United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.35 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.