Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
80th Birthday Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at 80th Birthday Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chiangrai United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Chiangrai United are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3W, Chiangrai United 4W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Chiangrai United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Chiangrai United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Chiangrai United 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.752 / defence 1.126 | Chiangrai United attack 1.272 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.187. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chiangrai United have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 52 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 46%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 2.17. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Chiangrai United 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 / Chiangrai United 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.752 / def 1.126 | Chiangrai United attack 1.272 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 27% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (7 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 4W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.27x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.64
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
20.45
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.70 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 52 games, going 10W 15D 27L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (17W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.23 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 7W 8D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (4W 9D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 10W 15D 27L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.12 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chiangrai United won 1-4 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Chiangrai United 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Chiangrai United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 65% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 xG and Chiangrai United 1.70 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Chiangrai United attack 1.27 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 46%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.87 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.