Muangthong United 1-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Muangthong United welcome Port FC to Thunder Dome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 28 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United at Thunder Dome Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium.
Port FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Muangthong United) versus 2.30 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Muangthong United, 1 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Port FC in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 50% and Port FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 53% | Port FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.57 xG and Port FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.068 / defence 0.970 | Port FC attack 1.172 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.103. Data: 32 Muangthong United games / 32 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 40% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Muangthong United 1.57 / Port FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.068 / def 0.970 | Port FC attack 1.172 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Port FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Port FC kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Muangthong United 1 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Port FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 43% chance of winning, Port FC a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Muangthong United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Record (4 meetings): Muangthong United 2W | Draws 1 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.07x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.64
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.82
1.25
Port FC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.25 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 6L across 32 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.59 PPG, Port FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 5W 7D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 75%.
Defensively: Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Port FC have gone 15W 11D 6L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Port FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.94 PPG; Port FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Port FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 44%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Muangthong United) and 56% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Muangthong United's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Muangthong United's matches and 56% of Port FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Port FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Port FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Muangthong United 1-3 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.57 xG and Port FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Port FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 53%, Port FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.59 PPG, Port FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.