Muangthong United 2-3 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Muangthong United and Chonburi FC meet at Thunderdome Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Muangthong United have posted 4W 1D 5L at Thunderdome Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunderdome Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunderdome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chonburi FC have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Muangthong United, 0.90 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Muangthong United 2W, Chonburi FC 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 6–0 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 46% versus Chonburi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 46% | Chonburi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.16 xG and Chonburi FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.753 / defence 1.430 | Chonburi FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.167. Muangthong United's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Muangthong United games / 13 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 30% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Chonburi FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Muangthong United 40% | Chonburi FC 57%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Thunderdome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 30% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Muangthong United 1.16 / Chonburi FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.753 / def 1.430 | Chonburi FC attack 0.769 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Thunderdome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Muangthong United 2 - 3 Chonburi FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunderdome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 30% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Muangthong United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Muangthong United 2W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 2W.
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 0.75x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.77x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
30%
3.30
34%
2.96
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Chonburi FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.28 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 4D 6L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 2W 5D 6L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Muangthong United against 0.85 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.17 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 6-0 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 33%, Chonburi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Muangthong United) and 67% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Muangthong United have failed to score in 33% of games; Chonburi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 67% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Muangthong United's matches and 67% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Muangthong United 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Muangthong United 2-3 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.16 xG and Chonburi FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.75 / defence 1.43 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 30% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 36%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 46%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.00 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.