Khon Kaen United 1-0 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Khon Kaen Stadium plays host to Khon Kaen United versus Pattaya United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's home record at Khon Kaen Stadium: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Pattaya United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Khon Kaen United's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Pattaya United half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 43% versus Pattaya United 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 43% | Pattaya United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.82 xG and Pattaya United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.691 / defence 1.392 | Pattaya United attack 0.686 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.139. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Khon Kaen United games / 14 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 41%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Pattaya United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattaya United at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khon Kaen United (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pattaya United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 43% | Pattaya United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.82 / Pattaya United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.691 / def 1.392 | Pattaya United attack 0.686 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Pattaya United xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 0 Pattaya United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 27% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Pattaya United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.69x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattaya United's attack (0.69x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
27%
3.67
31%
3.19
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
1.91
1.09
Pattaya United xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.09 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 4W 2D 8L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pattaya United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 6L across 14 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 1.00 for Pattaya United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pattaya United's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 1.07 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Pattaya United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Pattaya United away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.14 PPG; Pattaya United away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
0
Draws
1
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Pattaya United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Pattaya United 2-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 43%, Pattaya United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Khon Kaen United and 29% for Pattaya United.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 43% of games; Pattaya United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 43% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 29% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Pattaya United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Pattaya United 1-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.82 xG and Pattaya United 1.09 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pattaya United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.69 / defence 1.39 against Pattaya United attack 0.69 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 41%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 43%, Pattaya United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Pattaya United's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG, Pattaya United 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.