Chiangrai United 2-2 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Chiangrai United welcome Pattaya United to Singha Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 0.92 xG and Pattaya United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pattaya United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.507. Data: 0 Chiangrai United games / 0 Pattaya United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 20% | Draw 34% | Pattaya United 46%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Pattaya United 2.17. Pattaya United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pattaya United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 20% | Draw 34% | Pattaya United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Chiangrai United 0.92 / Pattaya United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pattaya United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Pattaya United xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United?
Chiangrai United 2 - 2 Pattaya United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 20% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chiangrai United and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Pattaya United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pattaya United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
20%
5.07
34%
2.96
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.39
1.47
Pattaya United xG
5.07
20%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
22.12
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.47 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
Pattaya United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Pattaya United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2022, when Pattaya United 1-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Pattaya United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chiangrai United and Pattaya United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United and Pattaya United finished level at 2-2 at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 0.92 xG and Pattaya United 1.47 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Pattaya United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 20% | Draw 34% | Pattaya United 46%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.