FC Thun 2-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 43%, yet in-form FC Thun provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Thun vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stockhorn Arena to face FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
FC Thun (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Super League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward FC Thun. A 1.40 PPG lead over Lausanne (3.00 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — FC Thun register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Lausanne in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.36 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.856 / defence 1.150 | Lausanne attack 0.977 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.468. Data: 1 FC Thun games / 34 Lausanne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Thun 31% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 31% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Thun 1.36 / Lausanne 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.856 / def 1.150 | Lausanne attack 0.977 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Lausanne xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Thun vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Lausanne?
FC Thun 2 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Thun vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Lausanne part of?
FC Thun vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 31% chance of winning, Lausanne a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Thun and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Thun and Lausanne in?
FC Thun (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.86) and Lausanne's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.98x) against FC Thun's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (1/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.87
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.01
1.65
Lausanne xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.65 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, FC Thun have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for FC Thun against 3.00 for Lausanne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Lausanne's attacking output running into FC Thun's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Lausanne in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 5-1 on 12 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Thun
1
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Lausanne?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, Lausanne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when FC Thun 0-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Lausanne?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Thun's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Thun's matches and 100% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Thun and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.36 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Lausanne attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 1/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 31% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 43%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 100%, Lausanne 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Thun 3.00 PPG, Lausanne 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.