Trelleborg 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trelleborg face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC meet at Vångavallen in Superettan (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Trelleborg at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.40 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Trelleborg, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Trelleborg 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC — a Varbergs BoIS FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 58%). Note also that Varbergs BoIS FC surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Trelleborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.00 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.695 / defence 0.959 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.119 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.106. Trelleborg's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Trelleborg's last 34 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 34.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 31% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.25 | Draw 3.44 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though recent form (Trelleborg's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Trelleborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 31% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Trelleborg 1.00 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.695 / def 0.959 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.119 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC FAQs
What time does Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Trelleborg 0 - 4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 31% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.69x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.12x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Trelleborg's last 34 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.44
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.19 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trelleborg come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 15D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 0.90 PPG from 60 outings (13W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Trelleborg's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Trelleborg (Home) vs Varbergs BoIS FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trelleborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC Form FAQs
What form are Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.53 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won Trelleborg 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Trelleborg have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 63% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Trelleborg's matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Trelleborg and Varbergs BoIS FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 77% of Varbergs BoIS FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Trelleborg 0-4 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.00 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.69 / defence 0.96 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 31% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.