Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Landskrona BoIS face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandviken stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sandviken's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 0.90 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 1 for Sandviken and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Landskrona BoIS 0–2 Sandviken — a Sandviken win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandviken trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 50% versus Sandviken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 53% | Sandviken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.165 / defence 1.072 | Sandviken attack 1.096 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.119. Sandviken's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Sandviken's last 34.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.88 | Draw 4.62 | Sandviken 3.99. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Sandviken's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 50% (last 10 home games) | Sandviken 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.00 / Sandviken 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.165 / def 1.072 | Sandviken attack 1.096 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sandviken xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 53% chance of winning, Sandviken a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.17) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Sandviken's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.62
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.31
1.31
Sandviken xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.31 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 7D 9L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.63 PPG, Sandviken on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 15 away games (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.63 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Sandviken away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.87 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandviken in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 4-0 Sandviken.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 40%, Sandviken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Landskrona BoIS) and 67% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS have failed to score in 33% of games; Sandviken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 60% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 60% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.00 xG and Sandviken 1.31 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sandviken landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Sandviken attack 1.10 / defence 1.27, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 53% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 53%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.