Trelleborg 1-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vångavallen plays host to Trelleborg versus Akropolis in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.32 xG and Akropolis 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / defence 1.185 | Akropolis attack 0.806 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 0.836. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Trelleborg games / 4 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 35% | Akropolis 19%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Akropolis 5.26. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 35% | Akropolis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Trelleborg 1.32 / Akropolis 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / def 1.185 | Akropolis attack 0.806 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.027 / away 0.836 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Akropolis xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Akropolis kick off?
Trelleborg vs Akropolis kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 10 May 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Akropolis?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Trelleborg vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Akropolis part of?
Trelleborg vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 46% chance of winning, Akropolis a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Trelleborg and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Akropolis in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.96) and Akropolis's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akropolis's attack (0.81x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.86
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.12
0.80
Akropolis xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.80 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Akropolis
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trelleborg
1
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 0, Akropolis have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Akropolis 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Akropolis?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Trelleborg and Akropolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 5, as Trelleborg and Akropolis drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.32 xG and Akropolis 0.80 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Akropolis attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 46% | Draw 35% | Akropolis 19%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.