Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oddevold at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Oddevold encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Oddevold travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Oddevold have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oddevold — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Oddevold and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orebro SK 61% and Oddevold 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 52% | Oddevold 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.89 xG and Oddevold 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.885 / defence 1.135 | Oddevold attack 1.127 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.325. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Orebro SK games / 46 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 19% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 56%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Oddevold 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Oddevold 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 19% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Orebro SK 0.89 / Oddevold 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.885 / def 1.135 | Oddevold attack 1.127 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Oddevold xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Oddevold kick off?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 August 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Orebro SK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Oddevold part of?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 19% chance of winning, Oddevold a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orebro SK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 2 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Oddevold in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Oddevold (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Oddevold's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
19%
5.20
25%
4.03
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.59
1.70
Oddevold xG
5.20
19%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.70 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 15D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.37 PPG from 46 outings (16W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 0.98 PPG, Oddevold on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.24 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Oddevold in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 16W 15D 15L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.41 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Oddevold runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
4
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Oddevold have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, Oddevold 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Orebro SK) and 59% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 32%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 41% of games; Oddevold in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Orebro SK's recent games and 59% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Oddevold tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Oddevold finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.89 xG and Oddevold 1.70 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Oddevold attack 1.13 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 19% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 56%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, Oddevold 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.98 PPG, Oddevold 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.