GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at NP3 Arena this season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in GIF Sundsvall's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 1W, Varbergs BoIS FC 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 49% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.837 / defence 0.968 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.997 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.219. Data: 51 GIF Sundsvall games / 51 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Varbergs BoIS FC lead the H2H ledger, but GIF Sundsvall carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.23 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.837 / def 0.968 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.997 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.00x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.38
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.40
1.18
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.18 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 12D 20L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 19W 15D 17L from 51 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.41 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.28 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.24 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (GIF Sundsvall) and 60% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 68% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Varbergs BoIS FC defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.35 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.