GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gefle IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for GIF Sundsvall, 1.40 for Gefle IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 1W, Gefle IF 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Gefle IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Gefle IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Gefle IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.59 xG and Gefle IF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.865 / defence 1.023 | Gefle IF attack 0.786 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 GIF Sundsvall games / 59 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 27% | Gefle IF 22%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Gefle IF 4.55. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Gefle IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 27% | Gefle IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.59 / Gefle IF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.865 / def 1.023 | Gefle IF attack 0.786 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Gefle IF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 52% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.86) and Gefle IF's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.79x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.54
0.95
Gefle IF xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
22.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 17W 15D 27L from 59 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 24L across 59 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.17 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 10W 9D 10L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 4W 9D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.24 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Gefle IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.34 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Gefle IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 59%, Gefle IF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 52% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gefle IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 48% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 52% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Gefle IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIF Sundsvall run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Gefle IF 3-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.59 xG and Gefle IF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Gefle IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 27% | Gefle IF 22%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Gefle IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.12 PPG, Gefle IF 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.