Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vasteras SK FK face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Djurgardens IF to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's home record at Hitachi Energy Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Djurgardens IF — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Djurgardens IF have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Vasteras SK FK.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2026, ended 0–6 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 52% versus Djurgardens IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 66% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.010 / defence 1.154 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.083 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.360. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Vasteras SK FK games / 44 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 45%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 2.22. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.29 / Djurgardens IF 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.010 / def 1.154 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.083 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Djurgardens IF xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 August 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 27% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
27%
3.75
29%
3.50
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.98
1.70
Djurgardens IF xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
5%
20.48
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.70 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 25W 9D 10L from 44 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 11L across 44 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.91 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 13W 6D 2L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 11W 4D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.93 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.14 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2026, when Djurgardens IF won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
3
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 48%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Vasteras SK FK) and 43% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 38%; Djurgardens IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.70 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 45%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 66%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.91 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.