Sirius 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Mjallby AIF — this Sirius vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sirius's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sirius at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sirius, 1.70 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have the stronger record — 5 wins to Sirius's 0, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Jul 2024, ended Sirius 2–3 Mjallby AIF — a Mjallby AIF win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Mjallby AIF have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 53% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.45 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.176 / defence 1.166 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.905 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.259. Data: built from Sirius's last 58 games and Mjallby AIF's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.52 | Draw 3.79 | Mjallby AIF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sirius's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sirius 60% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 29 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sirius 1.45 / Mjallby AIF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.176 / def 1.166 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.905 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjallby AIF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sirius vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.18) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Sirius's last 58 games and Mjallby AIF's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.79
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
Mjallby AIF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sirius and 1.33 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 10D 24L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.50 PPG from 58 outings (25W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Sirius against 1.50 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 13W 3D 13L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 4D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Sirius (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sirius
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 10D 24L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.45 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won Mjallby AIF 3-0 Sirius on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sirius
2
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Sirius vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sirius have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 52%, Mjallby AIF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Sirius) and 45% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 31%; Sirius have failed to score in 28% of games; Mjallby AIF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sirius and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sirius's recent matches and 38% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sirius and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sirius's matches and 45% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sirius's recent matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 29, as Sirius and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.45 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.41 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.