Mjallby AIF 1-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.

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Full Analysis

Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 30). Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Mjallby AIF have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

IFK Goteborg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.70 PPG lead over IFK Goteborg (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of IFK Goteborg's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, IFK Goteborg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2024, ended Mjallby AIF 0–1 IFK Goteborg — a IFK Goteborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 51% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 49% | IFK Goteborg 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.64 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.121 / defence 0.997 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.075 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.233. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 59 games and IFK Goteborg's last 59.

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 45% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.24 | Draw 4.07 | IFK Goteborg 3.26. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 90% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 70% (last 10 away games).

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