Ostersunds FK 1-2 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 0.70 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 0–4 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.321 / defence 1.037 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.916 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.057. Ostersunds FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Ostersunds FK games / 33 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.00. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.45 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.321 / def 1.037 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.916 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.32x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.39
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.45
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.00 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 9D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 2W 4D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.67 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ostersunds FK) and 47% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 47% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 47% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Varbergs BoIS FC defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.32 / defence 1.04 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 25%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Varbergs BoIS FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.