Osters IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Osters IF's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and IF Elfsborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Osters IF 70% | IF Elfsborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 0.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.712 / defence 1.148 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.867 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.241. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Osters IF games / 37 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 29% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | IF Elfsborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | IF Elfsborg 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 29% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Osters IF 0.98 / IF Elfsborg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.712 / def 1.148 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.867 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
IF Elfsborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Osters IF 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 29% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osters IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.71) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.87x) against Osters IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.33
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.22
1.24
IF Elfsborg xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.24 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 16W 6D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Osters IF against 1.50 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Elfsborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when IF Elfsborg 5-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, IF Elfsborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Osters IF and 60% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Osters IF's matches and 60% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Osters IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Osters IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 29% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 41%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, IF Elfsborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.